Abstract

The article analyzes the relationship between aggregate economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in the context of the regular large-scale surveys of business and households for the period of 1998–2020. The aim of the study is to prove the empirical value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, especially in a time of sudden crisis events, as well as the feasibility of their use in short-term statistics of business cycles. The cyclical sensitivity of aggregate economic sentiment relative to the reference GDP growth dynamics is tested. The authors calculate a composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI) that combines quarterly information on 18 survey-based indicators. The sample used to construct the ESI covers about 24,000 organizations in main economic activities and 5,100 consumers in all Russian regions. Common empirical patterns and cyclical movement are identified using the iterative procedure of visual and statistical analysis of the relationship between the GDP physical volume index and ESI. The results of cross-correlation analysis, Hodrick—Prescott filtering, and dating of cyclical dynamics are described. The significance of the composite survey-based indicator in the sectoral and cross-country analysis of entrepreneurial behavior, including that during the COVID-19-related crisis, is confirmed. The results of the study allow one to record the “cognitive shift” in the level of aggregated entrepreneurial confidence having formed in recent years. After the decline in ESI values during the protracted recession in 2015–2016, its subsequent four-year dynamics are characterized by the lowest potential compared with the recovery periods after all previous crises.

Keywords: business and consumer surveys, economic sentiment indicator, composite business cycle indicators, growth cycles, GDP growth, economic growth.

JEL: C81, C82, E32, O47.

Liudmila A. Kitrar, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Centre for Business Tendencies Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics (4, Slavyanskaya pl., Moscow, 109074, Russian Federation).

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Tamara M. Lipkind. Centre for Business Tendencies Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics (4, Slavyanskaya pl., Moscow, 109074, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The work is devoted to a factor analysis of VAT collection. The article develops the ideas represented in the literature, testing the stability of the previously obtained results, but on a much wider database (formed for more than 80 countries on a time horizon from 1991 to 2018) and new determinants. According to the estimates, an important factor affecting tax revenues, as noted in earlier works, is the share of agriculture in the economy, an increase in which by 1 percentage point contributes to a decrease in C-efficiency by 0.7 percentage points. The estimation results have also shown three factors that stand out among the traditional determinants affecting the compliance gap: the standard tax rate with average elasticity of –1.58, the shadow economy with average elasticity of –0.71, and also the ratio of imports to final consumption with an elasticity of 0.14. In addition, the article tests new hypotheses that have become relevant in the last 15 years and have not been considered in the literature before. The authors have established a positive effect of digital decisions of VAT administration: the functioning of electronic declaration systems increases the collection rate by an average of 2.2 percentage points. However, even more important is the factor of information cooperation within unions with open borders: according to the estimates, the effect of strengthening information cooperation between the tax services of the EAEU member states can be up to 7–10 percentage points to the current level of C-efficiency in each of them. Thus, the development of digital systems, both for internal administration and networking (between the tax services of the allied countries), can significantly reduce the compliance gap.

Keywords: VAT collection, tax evasion, electronic declaration, collection factors, digital tax administration systems.

JEL: H20, H21, H22, H26, H30, C5, E62.

Elisei A. Leonov. Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetnyy per., 125009, Moscow, Russian Federation).

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Ilya A. Sokolov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Institute of Macroeconomic Research, Russian Foreign Trade Academy (4a, Pudovkina ul., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The article examines the issue of the development of international settlements in the national currencies of Russia’s partner countries in international integra­ tion associations—the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the BRICS economic bloc. The relevance of the study is due to the needs of economic integration and the expansion of the practice of economic sanctions in relations between states, as well as crisis phenomena in the global financial system. A survey of representatives of 19 largest Russian banks serves as the empirical base of the study. The survey has been conducted using a hybrid methodology with formalized and non­formalized elements. The questionnaire contained questions about the possibilities of opening accounts in the currencies of partner countries, conducting settlement transactions in them, using various systems for transmitting financial messages for settlement transactions, and the prospects for the development of settlements in national currencies. The study allows us to conclude that the transition to settlements in national currencies in it­ self cannot solve the problem of minimizing the negative consequences of external restrictive measures. In addition to the economic characteristics of national cur­ rencies well known from published works, such as volatility, underdevelopment of the foreign exchange market, limited lending opportunities etc., regulatory costs are a significant obstacle to the development of settlements in them. Some of the main directions for the development of settlements in national currencies may be a significant simplification of the norms and procedures of currency control in mutual settlements with partner countries in national currencies as well as har­ monization of the relevant regulatory environment within the framework of in­ tegration associations, primarily the EAEU. In the sphere of financial messaging services, one should not strive to ensure that the financial messaging system of the Bank of Russia (SPFS) becomes commercially efficient and gains as much market share as possible. It should be developed primarily as a backup system, and the main attention should be paid to ensuring the ease of transition to it in case of the Russian Federation’s disconnection from the SWIFT system as well as to compat­ ibility with similar systems operating in the EAEU countries.

Keywords: settlements in national currencies, Russian banks, Eurasian Economic Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, financial messaging systems.

JEL: F31, F34, F36.

Yury V. Kuznetsov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Financial Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (3/2, Nastas’in­ skiy per., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation); Editorial Board of the Journal “Economic Policy” (3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).

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Viktor S. Utkin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Financial Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (3/2, Nastas’inskiy per., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation); Alfa Bank (27, Kalanchevskaya ul., Moscow, Russia, 107078).

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Abstract

infectious disease mortality occupies a small share in the structure of mortality in developed countries. However, it is concentrated in relatively young ages, and it entails significant economic costs. From 1990 to 2018, Russian regions showed different dynamics of mortality from infectious diseases. Some regions managed to reverse the negative growth trend in mortality in the mid-2000s, but there are regions where growth in mortality continues to this day. Mortality from infectious diseases in the regions safest and least well on the indicator differs by a factor of 10. The worst dynamics are demonstrated by volga, Urals, and Western Siberia regions as well as Altai Krai, irkutsk Region, Primorsky Krai, and Chukotka. The purpose of this article is to study the economic factors determining mortality from infectious diseases in Russian regions. Estimating a fixed effect panel model based on data by the Federal State Statistics Service shows that regions with higher per capita cash incomes demonstrate lower mortality from infectious diseases. Alcohol consumption is a factor associated with higher mortality from infectious diseases. Mortality from infectious diseases is higher in regions with a larger population per doctor and with a lower capacity of outpatient facilities. important information for decision-makers responsible for reforming the healthcare system in terms of reducing the number of doctors consists in the presence of high elasticity of mortality from infectious diseases to the change in the population per doctor even in the absence of epidemics. Conclusions of the study could serve as a guideline for developing parameters of state health programs.

Keywords: infectious diseases, economic factors, healthcare, Russian regions.

JEL: I18.

Tatiana V. Kossova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). department of Applied Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

This paper discusses the details of the associative link between the structure of economy and the quality of higher education for Russian regions. Such a link facilitates the interplay between the sectoral structure of a regional economy and its higher education system. This kind of economic policy is consistent with a number of theoretical views on the role that human capital plays in the process of economic growth. On top of that, the paper provides an approach which helps in identifying the directions of development of both the system of higher education and the economic structure of the respective region, as well as coordinating these two processes. In addition, we characterize the complexity of each regional economy and the development of its higher education system. The corresponding indicators complement broadly accepted metrics, such as GRP per capita, which help distinguish between regional economies. In particular, the measure of economic complexity reflects how complex, on average, the industries producing the respective GRP level are. In the paper, we also identify a positive association between the complexity of regional economies and the quality and diversity of higher education programs at the regional level. Nevertheless, a number of regions stay apart because their higher education systems are relatively more advanced compared with the level of complexity of their economies. This result lets us suggest a discussion about the main goals of the regional system of higher education. The provision of training to meet the demands of the local labor market is an important task of the education system. However, a high-quality education system can in itself be considered as a sector of the local economy which is important to develop. Moreover, a high-quality education system facilitates labor mobility, providing better access to better jobs.

Keywords: economic complexity, higher education, inequality.

JEL: F16, I24, I25, O15.

Ivan L. Lyubimov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Igor V. Iakubovskii. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Abstract

The paper reveals problems of integrating national policy for increasing agricultural production and ecological consequences, including the important aspect of Russia’s ratification of the Paris Agreement on climate, which provides additional opportunities for a decrease in carbon emissions. Current government programs for agricultural development in Russia, which include but are not limited to production growth and increase in agricultural exports, do not take into account the ecological consequences of such growth. The paper analyzes how the agriculture of Russia has evolved in the recent period (2007–2017) and what amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions it has caused. Although in general emissions exhibited a decreasing trend, it was found that ploughing additional land for crop production had caused a large outburst of emissions from a small amount of land. Using the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model, two scenarios of Russia’s agricultural development until 2030 were formulated. The first one is intensive, with only a small amount of crop area growth but with a 45% increase in yields compared to current levels. The second scenario is an extensive one, with crop area growth of additional 6.4 million hectares and a total yield increase of 24% compared to current levels. Results have shown that crop and meat production increase in both scenarios, but the extensive one involves more emissions from additional ploughed land. To stop these kinds of practices, the recommendations would be to limit the ploughing of additional land and to improve statistical bookkeeping for a more accurate inclusion of land use and respective GHG emissions.

Keywords: agriculture, crop production, greenhouse gas emissions, ploughing of land, agricultural policy, climate policy

JEL: Q18, Q15.

Anton S. Strokov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Andre Deppermann, PhD (Agricult. Econ.). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria). E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Vladimir Yu. Potashnikov. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Anna A. Romanovskaya, Dr. Sci. (Biol.). Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (20B, Glebovskaya ul., Moscow, 107258, Russian Federation).

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Petr Havlik, PhD (Agricult. Econ.). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria).

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